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dimanche 8 avril 2007

Managing Option Directional Trades

Tue, 13 Jun 2006 15:56:46 GMT
by John Forman

Anduril, Inc.


Options provide great position management and risk control potential when using them to trade the market directionally. This goes beyond the simple fact that a long position in a call or put option has an absolute maximum risk equal to the cost of the option (plus commissions, of course). That, in and of itself, is a very useful thing. What this article discusses, however, are a couple of handy little things one can do while holding an option position to maximize the return and keep the risk well constrained.

Roll Up/Down

Most traders are familiar with the concept of a trailing stop whereby one moves their protective exit as the market moves in favor of the trade. This is used to lock in profits. The same thing can be accomplished when one is trading options rather than the underlying. This is done by rolling one's position up or down strike prices depending on whether the trade is a long using calls or short employing put options.

Here's a recent example from the author's own trading.

A long position in Seagate Technology (STX) was initiated when the stock was trading at around 21.50 using the March 22.50 call options. They were purchased for $0.80. The market rallied over the next few weeks, eventually moving up above $24. At that point, a roll-up was executed by selling the March 22.50 calls at $2.60 and purchasing the March 25 calls at $1.40. This action served two purposes. The first is that it took $1.20 off the table, reducing the portfolio exposure and freeing up cash for use elsewhere. It also locked in a profit of $0.40 ($2.60 sales price minus the $0.80 purchase price for the 22.50 calls minus the $1.40 purchase price for the new 25 calls). At the same time, it had no effect on the remaining upside potential for the trade. The two strikes would probably profit about the same from any further appreciation in the price of STX shares.

If the portfolio exposure was deemed acceptable at $2.60, an alternate course of action would have been to sell the March 22.50 calls and not take any money out, but rather roll it all in to the March 25 calls. For example, if the position was 10 options, selling the 22.50s would net $2600. That cash could have been used to purchase 18 of the 25 calls ($2600/$140 = 18.57). By doing so, one actually increases the upside potential for the trade substantially. Of course, the full position is at risk, meaning one could theoretically lose the whole $2600 invested, which is more than could have been lost when the trade was first initiated.

Roll Forward

One of the issues with options is the limited duration they provide for holding trades. If one is an intermediate to longer-term trader, this can be an important hurdle. That said, however, in a manner similar to the roll up/down, if one wants to extend the holding period of a position it can be done by rolling forward the expiration month.

Continuing with the STX example, we can look at rolling forward. That would be accomplished by going from the March contract to the June one. As of this writing, the March 25s are trading at $2.40 and the June 25s are at $3.60. There's the rub, though. Because of the longer time to expiration, the June contract is priced significantly higher. That is why a roll forward is often best accomplished with a roll up/down.

Consider the earlier roll-up in STX from the 22.50 call to the 25 call. If we were still in the former, and wanted to both roll forward and up, we could jump to the June 25 call. The current price on the 22.50 option is $4.10. With the June 25 at $3.60, we could accomplish both the roll up and roll forward and take $0.50 off the table. That is not quite as much as we accomplished with the roll up, but it does extend the time we could hold the position by three months. Whether that is worth the trade-off depends on the anticipated holding period for the trade.

The rolling of strike prices and expiration is something easily accomplished. The transaction costs for options trades have come down substantially for the individual trader in recent years. That opens up a great many possibilities for playing the market directionally and managing positions efficiently.

Forex Analysis: When to Trade

Thu, 29 Jun 2006 08:45:58 GMT
by Scott Owens

FX Engines | [ See company's profile at FXstreet.com Directory ]


Forex Analysis: When to Trade

One of the key elements of any trading systemis market timing. Many traders fail to account for timing when makingtrading decisions, and those who do often rely on their instinct ofmarket timing rather than empirical data. The sophisticated investoruses advanced timing techniques to optimize market entry and exit.

Analysis

• Hour: Which hours of the day will produce the best trades?
• Session: Which trading session has the most action?
• Day: What is the range for particular days of the week?
• Month: Do the days of the month differ?

Action

• Correlate your engines to optimal trading ranges
• Test your engines according to a specific entry schedule

When to trade? We wanted to be sure ourselves, so we took 4 yearsof historical tic data from a dealer and ran it through a rigorouseconometric analysis. The most basic results of that analysis show theimportance of understanding and employing timing in your entry and exitdecisions.

How To Increase Forex Profits 100% in 10 Minutes

Fri, 08 Sep 2006 10:12:11 GMT
by Jimmy Young

Eurusdtrader


How To Increase Forex Profits 100% in 10 Minutes

This simple exercise will increase Forex profits 100% and works for 99% of all short-term FX traders – stop trading so much – widen out your stops – widen out your profit targets – and only trade in the direction of the trend indicated by 4 hour chart.

1) Stop trading so much
Sure there are no commissions but the spreads are HUGE and believe it or not (well you’ll believe it after you do the simple exercise below) the spreads are reducing your profits 100%!

2) Widen out your stops
Initial stop loss should be a minimum of 23 points; I use between 23 and 35 point stop losses for short-term trading.

3) Widen out your profit targets
Unless you think a trade can make you 100 points or more don’t do it.

4) Only trade in the direction of the 4 hour chart
The real money is made in the direction of the trend

Simple exercise

1) Download all your trades for the year into an excel spreadsheet (if you don’t know how to do this ask your broker for help).

2) Determine the dollar value of the spread for each trade.

3) Sum up the total dollar value of all spreads for all trades and add this number it to your current account balance; this is your spread adjusted account balance.

4) Take your spread adjusted current account balance and divide it by your opening balance at beginning of year; the result will be a percentage change.

5) Take your actual current account balance and divide it by your opening balance at beginning of year; the result will be a percentage change.

6) Subtract your spread adjusted year to date percentage change from your actual year to date percentage change.

7) That number should be 100% or more

8) Take the necessary steps as outlined above (1 to 4) and improve your results 100%

CURRENCIES: Dollar Little Changed Ahead Of Jobs Data; Pound Drops

http://www.djnewswires.com/eu CURRENCIES: Dollar Little Changed Ahead Of Jobs Data; Pound Drops

By Wanfeng Zhou

The dollar traded little changed against the euro and Japan's yen early Thursday, as foreign-exchange traders and the financial markets in general played it safe on the eve of the release of pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting growth in nonfarm payrolls of about 168,000. The Labor Department will release the report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

"With much of the world in for a long weekend and U.S. March nonfarm payrolls posing a notable event risk on Friday, major currencies were largely range-bound," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

In early New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 118.82 yen, compared with 118.68 yen late Wednesday. The euro stood at $1.3383, compared with $1.3369.

The British pound traded at $1.9681 vs. $1.9754. The dollar changed hands at 1.2185 Swiss francs, compared with 1.2196 francs.

The euro fetched 159 yen, compared with 158.66 yen.

The dollar registered little reaction to Thursday's Labor Department report showing weekly initial U.S. jobless claims rose by 11,000 to stand at 321,000 for the week ended March 31, their highest level since March 3.

Bank of England holds

The British pound dropped after the Bank of England earlier Thursday left the cost of borrowing unchanged at 5.25% for the third month in a row. The decision was in line with expectations of the majority of economists.

A significant minority, however, had been looking for an immediate rate hike after inflation ticked higher in February and other data showed activity in the services sector had edged up in March.

The central bank surprised the market with a rate hike in January -- its third since the summer of 2006 -- as it struggled to keep a lid on inflation.

But at its last meeting in March, the Bank of England's monetary-policy panel voted 8 to 1 to hold steady on rates, with the lone dissenter actually calling for a rate cut amid volatile stock-market conditions.

The central bank's decision Thursday is widely seen as a temporary pause before another rate hike in May.

"It looks like the markets will have to wait another month," said David Brown, economist at Bear Stearns, in a note.

"The next rise should be linked in to the publication of the next Bank of England inflation report in May," he said. "The Bank of England's inflation hackles are up and the tightening bias remains intact."

Also weighing down the pound Thursday were data showing U.S. manufacturing production fell 0.6% in February from January while total industrial production slipped 0.2%. The figures were much weaker than expected.

Fresh action in China

Elsewhere, China's central bank announced Thursday it will boost mainland banks' reserve-requirement ratio by 50 basis points effective April 16.

The move is the sixth increase in the past 10 months and follows a hike of 27 basis points in short-term interest rates on March 18.

Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign-exchange analyst at CMC Markets in New York, said these market measures may "be designed to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Beijing is making concerted efforts to slow growth, rather than enjoying a free lunch at the expense of its western trading partners."

Yuan ends at record high of 7.7243 to US dollar vs 7.7325 in OTC trade

http://www.afxnews.com

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The yuan finished at a record high of 7.7243 to the dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market, rising sharply from yesterday's close of 7.7325.

On the exchange-traded market, the yuan also finished at a record high at 7.7245, compared with 7.7310 yesterday, a Guangzhou-based trader with a foreign bank said.

The yuan traded between 7.7296 - 7.7243 in the OTC market and 7.7264 - 7.7245 in the exchange-traded market.

The central bank set the yuan central parity at 7.7268 to the dollar today, the highest level since the central bank started setting the benchmark on Jan 6, 2006.

Yesterday's rate was set at 7.7349.

The People's Bank of China currently allows a trading band of 0.3 pct on either side of the midpoint.

Bank of Japan end-March assets 112.12 trln yen, down 22 pct yr-on-yr - report

http://www.afxnews.com

TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - The Bank of Japan had 112.12 trln yen in assets as of March 31, down 22.6 pct from a year earlier, the Nihon Keizai shimbun said, quoting a central bank report.

The amount was the lowest level recorded at the end of a fiscal year in seven years, the paper said.

After terminating zero interest rates, the BOJ has been reducing its supply of funds to the market. Thus, its holdings of short-term Japanese government bonds and other products it buys through fund-pumping operations declined.

The central bank's holdings of long-term JGBs also fell, even though it continues to purchase 1.2 trln yen in such bonds every month. The decrease is attributed to the Finance Ministry's repurchase and retirement of government debt as well as to a high level of redemption, the report added.